I get that the algorithm tells you the odds are in your favor in certain situations.  But you also have to consider risk and reward.

Lane may be trying to get fired and get his big buyout.  Since just before the Auburn fiasco, it seems like the team has given up on Lane.  His recruiting is suspect and he does not seem to be fired up about winning.  If Lane had gone to Auburn, Luke Fickell was very interested in the Ole Miss job.  The Rebels probably could have hired Fickell, save money, and ended up better in the long run.  As for the OL, there seems to be dissension among the linemen and NIL money that is given to Dart, Evans, and Judkins.  The OL are blocking the trenches for the QB and RBs but not getting the high compensation for doing it.  There must be something happening with the players because they don't seem to be playing as a team.