Why Southern Miss baseball will – and won't – win NCAA super regional against Ole Miss

HATTIESBURG — This Southern Miss baseball team has already made program history, winning the Golden Eagles' second regional title and the right to host a super regional for the first time. 

This weekend, the Golden Eagles (47-17) can take it a step further. They'll take on in-state rivals Ole Miss (35-22) in a super regional that is certain to go down in Mississippi baseball lore. 

So, who has the edge? 

Pitching: Southern Miss 
On paper, Southern Miss has the pitching advantage against every program in college baseball not named Tennessee. 

In their first three regional games, the Golden Eagles received outstanding performances from their sterling trio of weekend starters – Tanner Hall, Hunter Riggins and Hurston Waldrep – then rode some gutsy outings by lesser-used bullpen arms to a pair of wins over LSU.

"Elite pitching staff, and we couldn't hang with them in that regard," LSU coach Jay Johnson said. 

"They're infinitely better on the mound." 

The Golden Eagles boast the second-best team ERA in the country at 3.12. 

Though they showed pretty well in Coral Gables last weekend, the Rebels' pitching staff is outside the top-50 in the country in ERA – coming in at 4.60 on the year. 

Freshman lefthander Hunter Elliott has been the most statistically effective starter this season, pitching to a 3.17 ERA. He was superb against Miami, tossing five innings of one-run ball and striking out eight. He's got eight or more whiffs in four of his last five outings. 

Still, pitching is Southern Miss' greatest strength. If the Golden Eagles head to Omaha, their arms will be the reason why. 

Hitting: Ole Miss 
Buoyed by a 22-run outburst against Arizona in the final of the Coral Gables Regional, Ole Miss averages 7.84 runs per game to 6.7 for the Golden Eagles. 

The Rebels rank 22nd in the nation entering this super regional at 1.66 home runs per game – not far behind the homer-happy LSU offense that Southern Miss encountered last weekend. 

Ole Miss slugged five homers in three games in Coral Gables, with three coming off the bat of first baseman Tim Elko in the deciding game. 

Elko is the most dangerous hitter at this regional, with 22 home runs to his name. He and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez are the only two regulars from either team with an OPS over 1.000. 

The Southern Miss offense, while not quite as powerful, showed that it also could produce at the pivotal moments last weekend despite some struggles against Army and Kennesaw State. 

Facing a pair of elimination games against LSU on Sunday and Monday, the Golden Eagles plated eight runs twice. 

Playing with a bad back, first baseman Christopher Sargent went 11-for-21 over five games and cranked his 21st homer of the season to claim the regional's Most Outstanding Player award.

There isn't much between these two lineups, but the season-long numbers skew in Ole Miss' favor. 

Fielding: Southern Miss 
It's easy to forget that the Golden Eagles might have lost their season before they ever got a second shot at LSU without some sparkling defense. 

USM fell behind 3-2 against Kennesaw State in the ninth inning of their third game of the regional. The Owls had a chance for more, but Will McGillis made an outstanding diving play on a ground ball to second base to save a run. 

Southern Miss tied that game in the ninth, then walked off in the 10th to stave off elimination. 

Generally, USM has been one of the more sure-handed teams across college baseball this season. Its team fielding percentage of .977 ranks 26th in the country. 

Ole Miss hasn't been quite to that level with the glove, posting a fielding percentage of .972 – 107th nationally. 

SOURCE: David Eckert. "Why Southern Miss baseball will – and won't – win NCAA super regional against Ole Miss." Hattiesburg American, 8 June 2022, https://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/sports/college/southern-miss/baseball/2022/06/08/southern-miss-baseball-super-regional-2022-vs-ole-miss-hattiesburg/10001906002/

Reach Southern Miss writer David Eckert at deckert@gannett.com or on Twitter @davideckert98.