COLUMN: Arch Manning probably isn't coming to Ole Miss. That's OK.

Arch Manning finally went on the record.

Weeks and months of reports and sources across the recruiting industry established a narrative Manning was zeroing in on three schools in particular.

Ole Miss wasn’t one of them. 

But some Rebel fans held out some hope because Manning — an Ole Miss legacy and the No. 1 overall player for the 2023 class — hadn’t said anything publicly. He did on Monday, in an exclusive interview with On3 national recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman. 

“It’s kind of getting closer,” Manning told Spiegelman of a potential decision. “I don’t really have a point yet, but I guess it’s kind of narrowing stuff down. 

“I’m looking forward to (making a decision) either before the season or during the season or after the season. If I was ready I’d probably commit right now, but I’m not, so I’m just waiting.”

Manning said he’s considering Texas, Georgia and Alabama.
He’s also planning visits to LSU and Florida.

That’s right. The son of Cooper, grandson of Archie and nephew of Eli made no mention of Ole Miss.

Now, recruiting is fluid. It changes with the wind. But the 6-foot-4, 215-pound Manning, who’s ranked as a five-star-plus prospect by the On3 Consensus, as well as the nation’s No. 1 quarterback, has been deliberate throughout his process.

Most expected (or maybe were just hoping for) chaos and myriad twists and turns, seeing as Manning is, undoubtably, one of the most high-profile recruits in modern recruiting history. Maybe ever.

However, he’s been impressively consistent throughout. Cooper, the former Ole Miss wide receiver, has kept things grounded, and Texas has been a leader for a while. Alabama surged for a bit. Georgia has always been involved. 

Ole Miss? Crickets locally and nationally, especially lately. And that’s OK. 
Let me explain.

Rumors swirled for a while Ole Miss was going to be up against it to land Manning, despite the family ties. He kept Ole Miss around as a potential landing spot, though, in what now seems more and more like a show of respect and courtesy.

Fair to say the campaign offices for Arch Manning to Ole Miss can begin to close their doors, if they haven’t already. Texas is the On3 RPM (recruiting prediction machine) leader at 60.1 percent. Georgia is at 26.7 percent. Alabama is at 11 percent.

Some will continue to hold out hope, which is understandable and totally fine, too. Hope is a good thing. But, at some point, it is what it is and reality has to be accepted, especially if Manning continues to trend in every direction except Ole Miss. 

A recruitment is never over until it’s over, and my read on things from talking to people in and around Manning could end up being totally wrong. Heck, if I’m being honest, that’s the result I’m hoping for. I want to be totally wrong. Why? The only thing better for business than Lane Kiffin would be Arch Manning.

I just don’t see it.
Ole Miss’ recent actions on the trail should have been a dead giveaway.

The Rebels landed four-star quarterback Marcel Reed (granted, no Manning), and they continue to pursue four-star Jaden Rashada. Both players visited for the annual Grove Bowl spring game last month. Reed pulled the trigger a few days later.

Regardless of what Manning does, Ole Miss has never really been in a better place in regards to quarterback recruiting. Kiffin is the primary draw. Before what turned out to be the wildest coaching carousel in recent memory, I wrote (and talked extensively about) how I believed Kiffin would be at Ole Miss for a while if he didn’t make a move in the offseason. 

Other high-profile jobs in college and the NFL opened up. Kiffin didn’t gain much traction and stayed put. There were reasons, of course. Among them, school and organizational decision-makers wanted to see if Kiffin, with his nomad reputation, could build something sustainable over multiple years at one place. 

So far, he’s done just that.

He’s also the entire brand for Ole Miss, and his marketability alone is enough to keep Ole Miss relevant, regardless of the win/loss record, which has been impressive in its own right, including the 10th Sugar Bowl appearance in program history last season.

quarterback-arch-manning
Arch Manning (Chad Simmons/On3)
Kiffin is never going to lack for quarterbacks.
As far as on-field, next-season value alone, Jaxson Dart, a former four-star and USC transfer, is likely worth more (much more) than Manning. This has nothing to do with NIL valuation. Dart signed an exclusive NIL deal with RealTree. On3 gives Manning a $3.1 million NIL number.

Reed, meanwhile, is a developmental quarterback fully on board with redshirting and getting better. One Ole Miss source told me outside of Manning, Jackson Arnold and Malachi Nelson, the Rebels were as high on Reed as any other 2023 signal-caller. Now, they still want Rashada and would take, say, Nico Iamaleava, a Tennessee commitment, in a heartbeat, but the point is, after the Big 3, teams can kind of take their pick, in Ole Miss’ view.

They’ve all got desirable traits, it just depends on what programs value most.

Dart has multiple years of eligibility. So does Luke Altmyer, a former four-star, too. Kiffin was ahead of the game in the NCAA Transfer Portal, and at Ole Miss, where multiple five-stars can’t be signed at every position for the two-deep depth chart (you know, like at Alabama and Georgia), becoming a destination school in the portal is a sound strategy.

A masterstroke, honestly.


Manning was never going to dictate the future success or failure of Ole Miss football.
That responsibility has always fallen to the more than capable hands of Kiffin. 

Yes, missing out on Manning will sting, if it happens. You never know. I’d be relieved to be wrong. 

The impact of his family on the university is immeasurable — going beyond producing two of the very best quarterbacks (Archie and Eli) Ole Miss has ever seen.

But the game has changed. Ole Miss has changed. If, years and years ago, Eli had chosen Texas instead, Ole Miss would have been set back no telling how many years. In 2022, and with the advent of the portal and NIL deals, as well as Kiffin’s forward-looking and proactive approach to it, Ole Miss has quickly established itself in a way only previously teased by former head coaches. 

Actual, year-to-year competitiveness.

When was the last time Ole Miss lost a quarterback the caliber of Matt Corral and still remained a sleeper pick for the SEC West, not to mention a Top 15 preseason team? When we could still, with straight faces, map out schedule-wise an Ole Miss path to the College Football Playoff in the months and months of waiting on football to return?

Never.

And that’s the difference.


SOURCE: Garrett, Ben. "​COLUMN: Arch Manning probably isn't coming to Ole Miss. That's OK." OMSpirit.com, 10 May 2022, https://www.on3.com/teams/ole-miss-rebels/news/arch-manning-ole-miss-rebels-recruiting/