Ole Miss is a 5.5-point favorite over Arkansas. Why that is — and isn't — a fair number


OXFORD — In the matchup between No. 17 Ole Miss and No. 13 Arkansas, the Rebels are the team favored to rebound more effectively.

The odds from Tipico favor Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1 SEC) to beat Arkansas (4-1, 1-1 SEC) by 5.5 points on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, ESPN) in a game where the over/under is 66.5 points. With both teams coming off ugly losses against No. 1 Alabama (42-21) and No. 2 Georgia (37-0), respectively, it'll be interesting to see how the SEC West's upstart contenders respond to losses.

If last year's game was any indication, the clash of styles on display should make for an interesting matchup. In 2020, Arkansas' downhill-and-defense strategy dictated the pace of the game and forced Ole Miss into turnovers and uncomfortable downs and distances. 

Let's take a look at whether we should expect that trend to repeat itself, or if Ole Miss is better suited to handle the Razorbacks this time around.

The challenge at the point of attack
Arkansas' defense is built to prevent big plays. And it works. The Razorbacks have allowed the sixth-fewest plays gaining 10 yards or more and the seventh-fewest plays gaining 20 yards or more in the FBS.

The flip side of that is it's possible to beat Arkansas with long, sustained drives. While the Razorbacks rank No. 2 in the nation in pass yards allowed per game, they rank No. 74 in rush yards allowed per carry and No. 84 in rush yards allowed per game.

Volume running doesn't necessarily require a slow gameplan. Ole Miss ran 53 times for 242 yards against Arkansas last year. The problem is just as Georgia exposed Arkansas' run defense, Alabama exposed Ole Miss' rushing attack.

The Rebels only ran for 78 yards against the Crimson Tide, their fewest in a game since 2018. Alabama's defensive linemen created stalemates at the line of scrimmage and their linebackers moved well sideline to sideline, preventing the Rebels from putting together the consistent run game they're accustomed to. 

Arkansas linebackers Bumper Pool, Hayden Henry and Grant Morgan and safety Jalen Catalon are among the SEC's top tacklers. Some of that has to do with how often opponents run against the Razorbacks. Nevertheless, the battle between Ole Miss' running backs and Arkansas' straight-line defenders should dictate the flow of the strength-on-strength matchup of this game.

Can Ole Miss stop Treylon Burks?
Arkansas' offense is built around a consistent rushing attack from running back Trelon Smith and quarterback KJ Jefferson. But the Razorbacks' most dynamic offensive weapon is receiver Treylon Burks. 

At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Burks is a matchup nightmare for an Ole Miss team thin at cornerback. Seniors Jaylon Jones and Deane Leonard have struggled in man coverage this season. Repeated coverage busts against Alabama left receivers to run free. Pass interference calls on deep shots were a problem against Austin Peay and Tulane.

Burks is the most talented receiver Ole Miss has faced this year. His ability to make plays on jump balls and beat isolated defenders will be a problem. Unless something changes, a strong Arkansas run game coupled with the threat of Burks on play-action should be a major headache for the Rebels.

Passer pressure party
Ole Miss' defense didn't do much right against Alabama, but it did manage to generate pressure. The Rebels logged three sacks, six tackles for loss and four quarterback hurries. Had they been able to bring down slippery Alabama quarterback Bryce Young on a few sacks he evaded, a few of Alabama's touchdowns would've turned into field goals.

Unsurprisingly, Georgia's star-studded defensive front put plenty of pressure on Arkansas too. The Bulldogs made four sacks, seven tackles for loss and 14 quarterback hurries.

If Ole Miss can generate pressure with edge rushers Sam Williams and Cedric Johnson the way Georgia did, that's a surefire way to knock the Razorbacks' offense out of rhythm.

SOURCE: Suss, Nick. "Ole Miss is a 5.5-point favorite over Arkansas. Why that is — and isn't — a fair number." Mississippi Clarion Ledger, 6 October 2021, https://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/ole-miss/2021/10/06/ole-miss-football-betting-odds-arkansas-razorbacks-sec-spread-line/5948626001/


Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.