Ole Miss basketball: The good, the bad and the ugly

Ole Miss fell to 9-6 (0-2 SEC) on the season following its 76-72 home loss to Arkansas. Here’s The Good, The Bad and The Ugly …

The Good: After a loss, not much. Ole Miss ushered in the SEC slate on the fringes of the NCAA Tournament discussion. The Rebels sat in the low-70s in the NCAA NET rankings, meaning they were positioned well enough to quickly put an up-and-down non-conference showing behind them and reassert themselves for another postseason push. However, they scored just 47 points in an ugly loss at lowly Texas A&M and blew an 11-point second-half lead at home to the Razorbacks, who’ve already surpassed expectations under first-year head coach Eric Musselman. Arkansas, in the preseason, was picked to finish 11th in the conference.

While it’s little consolation, the Rebels did make 25 of 26 (96.2 percent) at the free throw line — a Pavilion record and the third-best free throw percentage in a game in school history. It was the best performance at the charity stripe since Ole Miss made all 22 free throws against South Alabama (Nov. 18, 2008). Such an effort was encouraging, though it could prove to be a one-off, considering Ole Miss hasn’t done any one thing particularly well all season. Through 15 games, the Rebels have converted 65 percent or worse seven times and no better than 75 percent in three others. They did make 80+ percent in back-to-back wins over Western Michigan and Seattle, but those performances came in the season’s first few weeks. They’ve struggled for the most part, ranked 270th in the country by KenPom.com. Arkansas, though, was a positive step, to be sure.

The Bad: Most all of the focus has been on offensive inefficiency as coaches, players, pundits and fans have attempted to diagnosis the Rebels’ issues. However, the real rot is an overall defense that stands among the worst in the conference. KenPom credits Ole Miss with a 98.1 adjusted defensive efficiency, good for 119th in the country. The Division I average is 100.4. On the positive side, the Rebels have limited opponents to less than 30 percent shooting from three (50th), but the underlying concern there is they’re still bad, meaning the low three-point percentage against could indicate a bit a luck on the Rebels’ side. Could the results actually get worse as those three-point misses average out? One shutters to think. Ole Miss is 193rd in two-point percentage against (49.7).


Additionally, Ole Miss has given up a career night to an opposing player far too often. Western Michigan’s Brandon Johnson was first, pouring in 21 points on 8 for 12 (3-4 threes) from the floor. Then came Memphis’ D.J. Jeffries and Precious Achiuwa, the pair combining for 48 points (20-34). Butler’s Kamar Baldwin had 21 points, making 11 of his 16 field goals. Wichita State’s Erik Stevenson scored 29 points (9-15, 5-11), by far the most of his career, and Isaiah Joe tied his career-high with 34 points on 11-18 (7-13) shooting. Joe added two steals, two blocks and four rebounds.

“We worked so hard to keep it at eight, and it was gone in 20 seconds,” Ole Miss head coach Kermit Davis said. “In the end, we got the ball out of Breein's (Tyree) hands and nobody else could make a play. I thought we played well for about 35 minutes of the game, and then we are just having trouble stopping players. Kamar Baldwin got 31, this guy gets 34. We just did a poor job at the end of getting to Joe.”

Even in wins Ole Miss has allowed opposing players to get theirs. Middle Tennessee’s CJ Jones sank nine shots in 17 tries for 23 points. SELA’s Tyron Brewer exploded for 30 points on 13 of 17 (4-5). On any other day, the Rebels’ defensive woes would fall under Ugly. If things continue as they are, they’ll get there eventually.

The Ugly: Unlike last season, when the SEC boasted double-digit competitive teams, the league isn’t great in 2019-20. And yet, Ole Miss, with 16 games to go, is 11th in the SEC and 99th in the NCAA NET rankings. A win over Arkansas (NET 25) would have all but negated the loss at Texas A&M (NET 124, KenPom 140), but the Rebels couldn’t hold on, resulting in another golden Quadrant I opportunity slipping through their fingers.

Ole Miss turned heads in making its eighth all-time NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago after being picked to finish last in the conference. Expectations were high in Davis’ second season, especially after landing the highest-ranked recruiting class in school history, headlined by Khadim Sy, the No. 3 overall player in junior college, and four-star guard Austin Crowley.

It just hasn’t come together. While we all should have put more stock in Ole Miss losing an NBA player (Terence Davis) at the three, a roster featuring seven newcomers and the inevitable adjustment to come, the results are still surprising. Ole Miss is currently projected by KenPom to finish 14-17 overall and 5-13 in the SEC. The Rebels have lost three games in a row and now face a gauntlet of at Florida (KenPom 36), LSU (30) twice, at Tennessee (52), at Georgia (76) and No. 5 Auburn (16) before a Feb. 5 home contest against South Carolina. Make not mistake, the Rebels have the ability and potential to claim some wins, but what they’ve put on tape so far isn’t encouraging, and KenPom projects them to lose all six. Even more, the Gamecocks are 8-7 and KenPom 108, but as is typical of Frank Martin teams, they’ve already shown capable, including wins over Virginia and Clemson.

In short, Ole Miss has dug a deep hole. Kermit Davis has already identified toughness as a trait he’s searching for on the recruiting trail, which, with some three months left, is an ominous sign. Sure, there’s plenty of time to turn things around, and Ole Miss will have myriad opportunities, but it’s difficult, with the sample size so far, to determine where the change will come from that allows the Rebels to flip the switch. Ole Miss, at this point, is what it is offensively. When the Rebels get the ball to the third or fourth side on a given possession, they’re shooting around 70 percent. But they settled too much and force offense that isn’t there. And they’re just not playing well on the defensive end. When will they?

“There are zero moral victories,” Davis said after Arkansas. “Our team improved in spots. We all expect to win in that locker room. There's no doubt in our minds we're going to win the game as we prepare. A quadrant one win got by us, but there's two more coming here. Tomorrow, we'll watch this tape in the morning and turn our attention right to Florida. That's all you can do, you've got to have mini seasons here. They're all three-day preparations. That's all you can do is keep coming. Last year I think we played the eighth-toughest schedule in the SEC. This year it's No. 1, just the luck of the draw. It's going to be taxing in January, a tough month. There are some great opportunities for our team."

SOURCE: Garrett, Ben. "Ole Miss basketball: The good, the bad and the ugly." OMSpirit -247Sports.com, 12 January 2020, https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Ole-Miss-basketball-The-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-142068636