ESPN FPI: SEC football preseason power rankings

With one of the most talented rosters of all-time in college football, Ed Orgeron made good on his promise last season to bring a national championship home to the state of Louisiana. As for LSU's encore performance in 2020? Like every coach in the SEC, Orgeron is continuing to pace around his holding cell, waiting for the Tigers' cage to be unlocked.

"Everybody's on the same playing field, man," Orgeron said last month, referencing college football's current state of affairs. "It's not like we couldn't have spring ball, nobody else could. I think the work that we've been doing on a daily basis is going to help us. I think that once we get back, our guys are going to be eager.

"I think the biggest thing for us is for the quarterback and the receivers to get their timing down to catch a bunch of balls together. I think the gelling of the offensive line, once we do that, I think we're going to be fine."

However, according to ESPN's preseason Football Power Index, which features a nation-leading six SEC teams in the Top 15, LSU is not the team to beat at the top of the league this season.

ESPN defines its FPI as a "measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

ESPN revealed its updated FPI Top 25 rankings for the 2020 season earlier this month and here's a look at its SEC-wide breakdown:

14. VANDERBILT COMMODORES

(Photo: Danny Parker, 247Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 100

Projected total wins: 3.2

The word: Can the Commodores show positive strides following their worst season since 2014, Derek Mason's first in Nashville? Unfortunately, the FPI projects another tailspin at 3-9.

13. Mississippi State Bulldogs
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 72

Projected total wins: 4.6

The word: With arguably the top quarterback in the SEC leading the Air Raid, one would surmise Mike Leach and Mississippi State would get more respect here from ESPN's preseason simulation model. Instead, the Bulldogs are expected to wilt during Year 1 under a new regime with only a 24.9 percent chance to reach bowl eligibility.

12. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

(Photo: Brett Rojo, USA TODAY Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 59

Projected total wins: 5

The word: There's nowhere to go but up for the Razorbacks during Sam Pittman's first season and that's exactly what ESPN's FPI is projecting at Arkansas. That may not mean bowl eligibility, but five wins is a positive step considering the ruins left in the wake of the previous staff.

11. Missouri Tigers
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 55

Projected total wins: 6

The word: Going to work with the cloak of relative anonymity at Mizzou, first-year coach Eliah Drinkwitz has a 64.6 percent chance to go bowling to cap the 2020 season.

10. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

(Photo: Katie Dugan, 247Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 39

Projected total wins: 5.8

The word: Will Muschamp's most important campaign thus far with the Gamecocks, South Carolina is coming off an abysmal 4-8 finish against the nation's toughest schedule and oddsmakers are expecting another disappointing fall thanks to brutality once again. This team battles LSU, Georgia and Clemson in November alone, meaning the Gamecocks need to be close to six-win threshold heading into the final month to reach bowl eligibility. With a number of starters back defensively and the arrival of elite tailback Marshawn Lloyd to help anchor first-year assistant Mike Bobo's offense, South Carolina could be better than the simulation models project.

9. OLE MISS REBELS

(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 38

Projected total wins: 6.1

The word: How will Lane Kiffin fare during his first season in Oxford? There's enough talent there, at least offensively, to make a run at a bowl game. Stadium's Brett McMurphy took it one step further this spring and placed the Rebels inside his preseason Top 25  — lofty praise for a program in transition. ESPN's FPI projects a 6-6 season for Ole Miss with a 68.8 percent chance the Rebels indeed get to the postseason. The schedule for Kiffin is filled with potential landmines against nationally-ranked competition and navigating through that is a top priority.

8. TENNESSEE VOLS

(Photo: Getty)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 36

Projected total wins: 6.3

The word: Not quite as high on Tennessee as some preseason prognostications, the FPI slots the Vols with a final record of 6-6 this fall with a mere 1.7 percent chance to win the SEC East. That number changes significantly if Jeremy Pruitt, in his third year, can open the conference slate with a bang against Florida in Knoxville on Sept. 26, his biggest game to date at the program. The offseason's hottest team in the country from a recruiting perspective, Tennessee has landed eight commits in the last nine days and ranks No. 2 nationally for the 2021 class, per the 247Sports Composite.

7. KENTUCKY WILDCATS

(Photo: imagn's Randy Sartin)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 33

Projected total wins: 7

The word: Things have been relatively quiet this offseason in Lexington, other than assistant coach and top recruiter Vince Marrow announcing he was staying at Kentucky after receiving offers from other programs. Marrow is responsible for the Wildcats' recent rise on the recruiting trail and helping to evaluate upper-tier talent out of Ohio. Stoops is one of the SEC's most consistent coaches and with a manageable schedule this fall, most expect Kentucky could finish as high as third in the East. ESPN's FPI projects there's an 88 percent chance the Wildcats get back to the postseason.

6. TEXAS A&M AGGIES

(Photo: Streeter Lecka, Getty)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 15

Projected total wins: 8.9

The word: Breakthrough potentially with double-digit wins this fall? For Texas A&M to get there, senior quarterback Kellen Mond will have to be a game-changer and the depth the Aggies have established defensively through Fisher's first few recruiting classes must show out. Texas A&M is the first of six teams from the SEC inside ESPN's FPI Top 15, but the Aggies are given only a 5.7 percent chance to win the West — a division loaded with title contenders at the top. Ultimately, how this team performs against Auburn, Alabama and LSU will determine their fate.

5. FLORIDA GATORS

(Photo: Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 12

Projected total wins: 9.7

The word: Equipped with perhaps the SEC's top returning quarterback in Kyle Trask, the Gators are hoping their leader under center carries this team throughout the 2020 season against several big-time opponents, including LSU in Gainesville. One of the league's most complete teams, Florida knows its path to a conference title goes through Jacksonville and the aforementioned rivalry battle with the Bulldogs. Right now, ESPN's FPI deems the SEC East a two-team race and is giving the Gators a 39.8 percent chance to get to Atlanta where a potential final four berth would be on the line.

4. AUBURN TIGERS

(Photo: Jason Caldwell/Inside The Auburn Tigers, 247Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 9

Projected total wins: 9.1

The word: Facing one of the nation's toughest slates, Gus Malzahn's team will have to earn it this season. Isn't that always the narrative in the SEC? Sophomore quarterback Bo Nix could take a major step with Chad Morris taking things over offensively. His goal is to simplify the playbook to its essentials and ensure Auburn's rushing attack returns to its featured role. Auburn only has an 11.9 percent chance to win the competitive SEC West, coming in just ahead of Jimbo Fisher's Texas A&M Aggies.

3. LSU TIGERS

(Photo: Chuck Cook, USA TODAY Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 6

Projected total wins: 9.6

The word: Considering the losses, it could take a Houdini act from coach Ed Orgeron to replicate last season's success, but LSU has grown fond of being just outside the national title conversation. That's when the Tigers strike. After an incredible, record-setting 15-0 campaign ended with a championship, 14 players heard their names called in the NFL Draft, meaning the two-deep looks almost completely different in 2020. ESPN's FPI is giving LSU a 24.7 percent chance to win the SEC West and a 23.7 percent chance to return to the College Football Playoff due to player and coaching staff losses.

2. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

(Photo: Mark Zerof, USA TODAY Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 5

Projected total wins: 10.2

The word: If you're a believer in Wake Forest transfer quarterback Jamie Newman and new play-caller Todd Monken, Georgia should be the preseason favorite to win its fourth consecutive SEC East crown. The install period however is a bit tougher now without spring practice and time to adjust. Georgia's ultimate strength will come on the defensive side of the ball where the Bulldogs bring back most of their starters including several All-American candidates in the back seven. Collectively, this could be Kirby Smart's most complete defense yet in Athens.

1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Nick Saban
(Photo: Stuart McNair, 247Sports)
ESPN Power Index rank: No. 3

Projected total wins: 10.9

The word: Will Mac Jones be able to handle expectations as Alabama's QB1 and will the Crimson Tide's defense hold up its end of the bargain in 2020? Those are the two primary questions concerning one of the national title favorites. But considering Alabama's talent level with as many as five first-round picks in 2021, Nick Saban's squad should have no issues carrying the torch as the SEC's frontrunner this fall. ESPN's FPI puts Alabama's SEC title shot at 41 percent, considerably higher than the next closest elite program (Georgia at 23.6.).

SOURCE: Crawford, Brad. "ESPN FPI: SEC football preseason power rankings." OMSpirit - 247Sports.com, 5 May 2020, https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/LongFormArticle/ESPN-FPI-SEC-football-preseason-power-rankings-146810289#1414651_12